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Clearly, when prices go down, so should the affordable requirement. As for increasing the number of affordable units in San Francisco, there are many areas of San Francisco that could easily accommodate extra height. If, for example, on wide boulevards like Geary, you increased the height from 40 feet to 60 feet but required that 25 percent of the units built in the extra 20 feet be affordable, developers would voluntarily build those extra units.

The construction loan will hopefully be a HUD loan and will pay for the large bulk of the project's cost. We have been working on 333 Harrison for four years, and the success of this project will mean over 400 union construction jobs and a new city park in Rincon Hill, an area desperately underserved with respect to parkland per resident.

Q: What will development look like in San Francisco for the next five years?

Q: You mentioned the lack of lending for construction, yet you have a project in the works. Where and what is the project and how are you financing it?

We were successful in getting an $11.6 million infrastructure grant from the state of California, which the project was eligible for because of its downtown location, close to many transit lines, and its density. We have applied for a $5 million Proposition 84 Park grant, which would be used to build out the Rincon Hill neighborhood park, immediately adjacent to the building. We are applying for other grants that will help the project be built.

A: Given the existing commercial vacancy, I can't see that there will be much new office development. Depending on what happens with the economy, it seems it will take at least that long to burn off the existing vacant space.

As for condominiums, it is difficult to foresee much major development in that arena as well. Without Fannie and Freddie approval, it is highly unlikely that any construction lender will make a construction loan. New rules promulgated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require that a project be 50 percent sold before Fannie or Freddie will buy the take-out loans. Only apartments securing REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) capital or FHA (Federal Housing Administration) financing have a possibility of being built, and even these projects are very, very difficult to do.

A: The current affordable housing program in San Francisco is a valiant effort but it lacks incentives and flexibility. A 12 to 14 percent affordability requirement is fine when prices are high. When prices drop by 20 to 25 percent, projects cannot possibly afford to provide that amount of affordable housing.

Oz Erickson is the chairman of the Emerald Fund, a real estate development firm that has built housing and office buildings in San Francisco since 1979. Erickson has seen several real estate boom-and-bust cycles in the city. Currently, he's planning to use a significant amount of public financing to develop a downtown apartment building at a time when developers generally are finding it difficult to obtain private construction loans.

A: Our new project is a seven-story, 325-unit apartment project located at 333 Harrison at the corner of Fremont.

When you sell a condominium for $1,250 per foot when your costs are $800 per foot, you can afford to pay $70 per foot for affordable housing. Nobody will build. When you are selling for $800 a foot (where the high-end market is today), you can't possibly afford to pay that amount for affordable housing. Construction stops.

Q: San Francisco has long been known as a city without enough housing, and specifically, not enough affordable housing. Is there any real solution to that problem? How effective are the city's current strategies?

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